Daily Commodity/ MCX News Letter


The 50-day MA remains above the 200-day MA, sustaining the golden-cross that occurred late last week. When the 50-day moves above the 200-day moving average it is typically interpreted as a rather bullish event hence the name. Gold is proving quite resilient today in the face of a rebounding stock market. Stocks were lifted by dovish Fed Speak but heightened political and geopolitical risks are likely to continue underpinning the yellow metal. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard acknowledged that both growth and inflation data have been pretty soft of late. FOMC’s contemplated policy rate path is overly aggressive relative to actual incoming data on U.S. macroeconomic performance said Bullard. So what is the Fed to do at the June 13-14 FOMC meeting given still relatively buoyant stocks and the worsening risk that the economy stumbles in the face of the considerable headwinds now facing President Trump’s fiscal policy agenda Rate hike expectations have ebbed recently but there’s still several weeks to go before the FOMC convenes.


Silver price attempted to break the key support 37940 but it managed to hold above it which keeps the bullish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period which targets testing 40450 areas initially. Therefore we are waiting for positive trading today and breaching 37940 will ease the mission of achieving the above mentioned target while the expected rise depends on holding above 37940. Expected trading ranges for week are between 37940 supports and 39700 resistances. The U.S. Labor Department reported that job growth rebounded sharply in April and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4 percent, near a 10-year low.


Crude oil price rallied bullishly yesterday to breach 3270 level and settled with a daily close above it which activates the bullish trend scenario on the intraday and short term basis opening the way to head towards positive targets that start at 3440 and extend to the previously recorded top at 3610.Therefore, the bullish bias will remain suggested in the upcoming sessions supported by the EMA50, noting that holding above 3115 represents the most important condition to achieve the suggested targets. Expected trading ranges for weekly are between 2960 supports and 3320 resistances.


LME Copper prices gained 0.5 percent on Tuesday recovering from four-month lows touched in the previous session. Decline in LME stocks by 2.5 percent came as a relief since it jumped by a whopping 37 percent last week and are up by 13 percent this year. Shanghai stocks too have jumped by 60 percent this year.

Zinc :

Zinc settled flat as LME Zinc prices closed in a small backwardation for the first time since Feb. 20.Plans to boost infrastructure spending in China and the United States are bolstering market sentiment. Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 1904 tones. Zinc dropped -3.03% as pressure seen after the workers at a zinc smelter in Peru called off a strike. The euro zone economy started the year with robust growth that outstripped that of the United States and set the stage for a strong 2017 South Korea re-issued a tender to buy 1,000 tons of zinc for July arrival.


The China Banking Regulatory Commission unveiled plans to publish a flurry of regulations later this year to control financial risks. The April data from the credit market was better than expected. China’s growth is set for its weakest patch since the global financial crisis as authorities pull back on stimulus. Air pollution in a key Chinese region surrounding Beijing worsened in the first four months of this year, despite tough new campaigns to enforce green regulations. The Lead is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Lead is in strong downtrend but volume is unsatisfactory the open interest is not increasing with trend. The oscillator is showing sell signal for short term Lead is in hold short position. Immediate support for Lead is 132.Resistance for the Lead is 142.


The amount of nickel sitting in the LME warehouse network currently stands at 379,182 tons. Last year’s downtrend, which saw inventory fall by 69,000 tons, has dissipated. Now Market participants were also eyeing the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting this week. While the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates, investors were eyeing hints on the pace of future rate hikes. Recent economic data have not been supportive of faster rate hikes as manufacturing, and construction spending activity fell in April while investors braced for a jobs report on Friday. That said, the majority of traders, expected the Federal Reserve to maintain its previous guideline of three total rate hikes in 2017, with the second rate hike widely expected in June. Technically market is getting support at 578.60 and below same could see a test of 562 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 617.60, a move above could see prices testing 629.


The Aluminum is in long- medium- short-medium- short- term bull phase .Currently Aluminum is showing some up move after small correction and trend is strong and supported with good volume the open interest is not increasing with trend. The oscillator is showing buy signal for short term Aluminum is in hold long position and closed above 1 week high with volume signals up breakout. Support for the Aluminum is 120.80. Immediate resistance for Aluminum is 126.50.

Commodity Trends:

R1 S1
GOLD 28980 27960
SILVER 39700 37940
CRUDE 3320 2960
COPPER 369 356
LEAD 142 132
NICKEL 617.60 578.60
ALUMINIUM 126.50 120.80
ZINC 171 162